Verified late August 2026 · updated as rates finalize
The 2027 rate shock, explained.
Subsidies expired, proposed premiums are stacking a second big increase on last year's, carriers are exiting, and the helpers got defunded — all on one calendar. Here are the verified numbers, what's still proposed versus enacted, and what each kind of buyer can actually do about it.
Six numbers, sourced and scoped.
Jan 1, 2026
the enhanced premium tax credits expired — the House passed an extension, the Senate fell short, and no rescue had been enacted as of late August 2026
Public Law 119-21 aftermath; congressional record
~15% on ~20%
the median proposed 2027 individual-market increase, stacked on 2026's roughly 20% — proposed, not final; state regulators finalize rates this fall
KFF rate-filing tracker, August 2026
~369,000
members stranded by Cigna's individual-market exit across 11 states — including Georgia and Texas — among roughly six carriers exiting for 2027
Carrier exit announcements, 2026
+14%
the median proposed 2027 small-group increase — the renewal letter is climbing on the same calendar
State small-group filings, August 2026
~90%
the cut to federal navigator funding — the people who helped consumers shop largely won't be there this Open Enrollment
CMS navigator awards, 2026
PY2028
when auto-reenrollment ends for subsidized marketplace enrollees under the 2025 law — passive renewal is going away; every subsidized household becomes an active shopper
Public Law 119-21
What each buyer can actually do.
If you're an individual or family
Don't auto-renew into a repriced plan. Your county's lineup and prices are changing more this year than any year since 2018 — replay your actual year through what's really filed before Open Enrollment closes. If your carrier is exiting, you'll be mapped to a plan you didn't choose unless you shop.
If you're an employer holding a renewal
Your +14% small-group letter and the individual market's +15% come from the same underlying trend — the difference is control. A defined-contribution budget caps YOUR line even when the market's trend is ugly: the increase you absorb becomes a number you set, not a number you're handed.
If your carrier is leaving your state
An exit is a special situation with its own enrollment rights and deadlines. Start from your state's page — every county's remaining filed plans are priced there — and don't wait for the mapping letter to decide for you.
The mechanics live at the renewal page, defined contribution, explained, and Open Enrollment 2027, state by state.
The rate-shock questions.
Why are 2027 health insurance rates going up so much?
Three stacked causes: the enhanced premium tax credits expired January 1, 2026, shrinking and sickening the risk pool; medical and drug cost trend continued; and carrier exits reduced competition in many counties. The result is a median proposed increase around 15% for 2027 on top of 2026's roughly 20% — proposed figures, per KFF's tracker, with finals landing this fall.
Does the rate shock hurt the case for ICHRAs?
Partly, honestly, yes — the individual market an ICHRA buys from got more expensive too. What survives is the control argument: a defined-contribution budget converts an open-ended renewal trend into a fixed line item, and county-level math still finds real savings for many teams. We publish the comparison both ways — if keeping your group plan wins, that's the answer you'll get.
What happens to Cigna's individual-market members?
Roughly 369,000 members across 11 states — including Georgia and Texas — need new 2027 plans. Exiting-carrier members are typically mapped to another insurer's plan unless they actively choose; the remaining filed plans for every county we cover are priced on our state pages.
When can I act on any of this?
Open Enrollment for 2027 coverage starts November 1, 2026 everywhere we price (end dates vary by state — see our Open Enrollment roundup). Employers moving to a defined-contribution model don't have to wait: starting an ICHRA opens a special enrollment period any month.
Are these numbers final?
No — and pages that pretend otherwise are guessing. The 2027 individual and small-group figures are medians of proposed filings as of late August 2026; state regulators finalize this fall, and we'll update this page when they do. The subsidy expiration, the carrier exits, and the PY2028 auto-reenrollment change are enacted facts.
Cap your trend before it caps you.
Insurf, Inc. is not a licensed insurance agency, does not sell insurance, and receives no commissions; enrollment applications are submitted by an individually licensed insurance producer. Proposed rates are labeled as proposed and may change when regulators finalize them. This page is an educational overview — not an offer of coverage, not a recommendation to buy or drop any plan, and not financial, tax, legal, medical, coverage, or insurance advice.